marzieh pakniyat; Javid Bahrami; Hossein Tavakolian; Somayeh Shahhosseini
Abstract
Banks as financial intermediaries play an important role in facilitating the economic cycle. The implications of the bank’s investment in the housing sector in Iran's economy, which is prone to Dutch disease, is a concern of the present study and we have designed a Keynesian dynamic stochastic ...
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Banks as financial intermediaries play an important role in facilitating the economic cycle. The implications of the bank’s investment in the housing sector in Iran's economy, which is prone to Dutch disease, is a concern of the present study and we have designed a Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for it. The results of the model, which confirm the Dutch disease during a positive oil shock, suggest that banks' investment in the housing sector when production in the economy is growing and the amount of concessional facilities has increased, is a well-accepted and profitable. The positive shock of labor productivity in the manufacturing sector and the shock of monetary policy will put the economy in a position where production in the economy will increase and banks' investment in the housing sector will be profitable. But in a space where production is declining and the size of the granting of bank facilities is decreased, as the economy faces a positive shock to labor productivity in the housing sector or a positive shock to oil revenues, the freezing of banks' assets in the housing sector has not been favorable and, furthermore, putting them at risk by reducing profits and falling capital in banks.
Mohammad Sayadi; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks in macro-economic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with features such as the needs of infrastructure development and the existence of public investment inefficiencies and its ...
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The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks in macro-economic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with features such as the needs of infrastructure development and the existence of public investment inefficiencies and its comparison with Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH model). The results show that oil revenue shock has increased consumption, government current and capital spending and has reduced inflation in the short run, although has increased in the medium term due to the demand side push. The results revealed that the National Development Fund and consequently the Fund's concessional facilities to the private sector has been raised. In addition, because of the structure of the economy that was largely unproductive and the government activity in the economy would lead to crowding out effect, the oil revenue growth has little effect on the growth of non-oil producing sector. More over, each of the productivity and monetary shocks in the model has resulted the same theoretical expectations. Results also show that the implementation of fiscal policy based on PIH Scenario has better effects on macroeconomic variables in comparison with the business as usual scenario.
Seyed Peyman Asadi; Javid Bahrami
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 1-29
Abstract
This paper examines factors influencing the choice of exchange rate regime in oil producing countries. Prevailing theories in selecting exchange rate regime include optimum currency area, political economy theory, and currency crisis. In this survey the matter has been studied regarding political ...
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This paper examines factors influencing the choice of exchange rate regime in oil producing countries. Prevailing theories in selecting exchange rate regime include optimum currency area, political economy theory, and currency crisis. In this survey the matter has been studied regarding political economy theory. The variables used in the economic and political structure of the considered countries indicate that from 1974 to 2011 as many as 31 countries by using Panel Logit model have been studied. The result suggests the influence of political structure, oil rent, government ideology and economic capacity on specifying the exchange rate regime. Thus, the more democratic political structure, as well as the more leftist government ideology and also the wider economic capacity increase, the likelihood of choosing a flexible regime , If oil rent and dependence on oil revenue increase there will be a higher probability of implementing a fixed regime.
Lotfali Bakhshi; Javid Bahrami; Farzaneh Mousavi
Volume 1, Issue 4 , October 2012, , Pages 25-42
Abstract
countries. It seems that these effects have modified during the last four decades. In other words, the effects of the oil shocks of 1970s on the industrialized economies of the oil importing countries have been mostly followed by an overwhelming stagflation, although such severe effects have not appeared ...
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countries. It seems that these effects have modified during the last four decades. In other words, the effects of the oil shocks of 1970s on the industrialized economies of the oil importing countries have been mostly followed by an overwhelming stagflation, although such severe effects have not appeared after the oil shocks of 1990s. In this paper, with the use of Autoregressive (VAR) model, the attempt is to investigate the critical effects of oil shocks on some oil exporting countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Norway and Canada. Based on impulse response functions in these countries, we will arrive at the conclusion that just in Norway and Canada, the effects of oil shocks on growth rate, inflation and real exchange rate have been decreased. In this case, the paper will argue that the role of exchange rate systems, monetary policies and different macroeconomic structure of these countries have caused milder effects of oil shocks in 1990s.
